Application of statistical method shows promise mitigating climate change effects on pine

Confronting evidence that the global climate is changing rapidly relative to historical trends, researchers at North Carolina State University have developed a new statistical model that, when applied to the loblolly pine tree populations in the southeastern United States, will benefit forest landowners and the forest industry in future decades. The research, titled “Optimal Seed Deployment Under Climate ChangeClimate change is a lasting change in weather patterns over long periods of time. It can be a natural phenomena and and has occurred on Earth even before people inhabited it. Quite different is a current situation that is also referred to as climate change, anthropogenic climate change, or ... Using Spatial Models: Application to Loblolly Pine in the Southeastern US” appears in the Journal of The American Statistical Association.

“In the past, statistical approachesCore to livelihoods approaches are a set of principles that underpin best practice in any development intervention: *People-centred *Responsive and participatory *Multi-level *Conducted in partnership * Sustainable *Dynamic that were used to help guide forest management decisions like strategic seedling planting had limitations,” note the authors. “Our proposed model, which is based on future climate change scenarios, produces more accurate predictions than previous methods. As a result, it can be used as a quantitative tool for designing forest management strategies that mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.”

The findings are the result of the Cooperative Tree Improvement Program, a joint effort between NC State’s Department of ForestryForestry is the management and care of woods, including fellings and plantation of new trees. and Natural Resources and Department of Statistics, in which NC State and its members carried out breeding of loblolly pine families and established a large number of field trials in approximately 25 locations across the southern U.S. in the early 1990s.

Stress to the loblolly pine plantations in the southern U.S. from projected temperature increases and likely precipitationNo reegle definitive available. decreases due to climate change could have significant economic and environmental impacts. The optimal seed sources that have been planted for decades will no longer be the optimal seed sources to plant today or in the future. The authors suggest an optimal assisted migration of loblolly pine seed sources from southern and warmer regions to northern and colder areas in the southeastern U.S. to mitigate adverse climate change effect.

Loblolly pine is the most important commercial pine species in the U.S. More than 39 million acres of pine plantations span the South, and about 1 million acres are planted every year by small landowners and forestry companies. Timber market models forecast overall production in the U.S. will increase by one-third leading up to 2040, and nearly all this growth will come from the South, which currently produces more timber than any country in the world. In addition to the financial benefits to landowners, loblolly pine plantations provide clean waterClimate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources from population growth and economic and land-use change, including urbanisation. On a regional scale, mountain snow pack, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability. Widespread mass ... and habitat for countless species in the region.

Story Source:

Materials provided by American Statistical Association. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Powered by WPeMatico

Leave a Reply

Be the First to Comment!

Notify of
avatar
wpDiscuz
Translate »
Support