El Nino commands respect from those who live near the West Coast and when those Pacific ocean surface temperatures are warmer than usual, even by a few degrees, you can be it will rain like the Dickens. Are we looking at an El Nino this 2005 Winter Season? How about a La Nina, with little if any rain causing even worse issues in lack of water supply?
The last really strong LA Nina was in 95-96 after a completely fascinating Storm Watch 93-94 El Nino. As any competent Naval Postgraduate Student or NOAA Research Professional will tell you the Atmosphere is extremely complicated. Question? For the proper LA Nina effect you will need cooling of the Pacific Ocean surface waters? So do you believe this will happen? Well if you are starting to see that CA coastline is the coolest area in the country at least this week, one could conclude that July – August Transition is telling us something, however even if you merely skim the USA Today Charts each day you will see this is only about a two-week trend and therefore of little value unless one takes into considerations of ambient temperatures in Hawaii, yet they are showing above normal heat much like the rest of the country.
I personally feel that the hot Pacific Trend has not changed significantly yet. We are seeing some fierce Monsoon weather in Mexico and AZ, even into NV and CO, which is good for rain, bad for fires and lightening as it hits the higher elevations and the water is dropped in lower AZ plains yet the thunder and lightening clouds are still quite intense up into CO and Northern AZ. The Jet stream dipping as we hit fall is a good indication, but it appears to be too soon to see if the surface water temps will be low or high. For those of you that watch stock charts this maybe of value in the trend prediction, if in fact this trend still exists and is not altered by a more macro event such as Solar Activity or flairs at just the right time or man's intervention and the Kyoto Alarmists?
and as you can see everyone is a self proclaimed expert and in certain markets watching charts can help you make a lot of money in the gambling casino or our supposedly capitalization of American Businesses Stock Markets. Currently weather prediction modeling for long-term weather trends is not quite there yet, so we shall see if the Pacific Ocean turns out to be both warm and high waters. Think on this.