‘Too big of a beast to pull back at this point’: The clock is ticking on sea level rise and we can’t stop it, says Newfoundland expert, so it’s time to retreat

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HARBOUR MAIN, N.L. — While the world is scrambling to try to lower greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to slow global warming, there’s no stopping the rising ocean.

That’s obviously important in Atlantic Canada, where many people live in close proximity to the sea, having established the strong connection through centuries of economic necessity.

Emma Power is a consultant with Fundamental Inc., a company based in Harbour Main, N.L. that works with communities and businesses to help them find effective ways to be more resilient when it comes to dealing with the impacts of climate change.

Just as there’s a lot of uncertainty about how much more precipitation will fall or how much hotter the weather might get, there is uncertainty about just how much the sea will rise – and when.

But, said Power, there is no uncertainty in the fact sea-level rise will happen.

“Even if emissions do come down a bunch and temperatures stabilize, the ocean is still going to change,” said Power.

“It’s too big of a beast to pull back at this point. Ice has melted and will continue to melt, and we just can’t reverse that in the way we can potentially reverse other things.”

Coastal communities at risk

The rising sea level is one of the biggest risks to all coastal communities, especially the low-elevation ones.

Post-tropical storm Fiona left a wide swath of coastal destruction across Atlantic Canada, particularly in coastal communities, and is a reminder of the risk of living perilously close to the edge of the shoreline. But the biggest impact of that storm was due to a strong storm surge that struck at high tide.

The bigger issue is the oceans are still rising and could rise by a metre by the end of the century.

“When sea level rises, maybe the storm surges will get worse and maybe not,” said Power.

“But, even if they are the same as they are now, the baseline (will be) so much higher, then it will seem like a storm surge is bigger than before. If (sea levels) are up a metre already to start with, then add two metres (of storm surge) to that and you’re pretty far inland then.”

Managed retreat

Without detailed investigation and assessment, it’s hard to predict what the specific risks are for particular areas, let alone determine what, if anything, can be done to protect existing infrastructure or mitigate damage from events associated with rising sea levels.

“To me, the most reasonable thing to do is move further from the coast,” said Power.

In climate change circles, that is called managed retreat, and Power acknowledged it’s a difficult topic to talk about.

“People are very tied to where they live,” she said. “We love being able to see the ocean. We built these communities usually based on the fishing economy – everything is near the coast because it had a reason to be back in the day.

“But, there really isn’t much we can do to protect that stuff that isn’t going to be a waste of money in the end, in my opinion. You can build walls and all those things, but it will be very difficult to build it to a degree that will guarantee anything because these forces are so strong and there’s not a lot of fighting it we can do.”

“You can build walls and all those things, but it will be very difficult to build it to a degree that will guarantee anything because these forces are so strong and there’s not a lot of fighting it we can do.”
— Emma Power

The silver lining, if there is one, from the devastation of post-tropical storm Fiona is that it’s getting people to talk more about serious and emotionally charged issues like a managed retreat from coastal communities.

“Just from following the news, some people have said they can’t go back there and live that close to the ocean again,” noted Power.

While some people may have those thoughts on a case-by-case basis, mobilizing a managed retreat on any kind of larger scale would not be easy, said Power. It would involve legal and financial implications that could complicate how such a massive undertaking could be carried out equitably.

“There’s so much to it, but we really have to start talking about it, because if we put too much faith in some of these engineered solutions, I think we’ll end up disappointed,” said Power.

In addition, many of the small communities in question are run by volunteers, with minimal budgets and limited expertise, who are already at their limits just to keep their communities functioning.

“We don’t have all the answers to how that would work, but we have to have that idea in our minds to start coming to terms with it,” said Power.

Can’t go it alone

Any sort of managed retreat plan would clearly require help from both the provincial and federal levels, especially since it’s an issue that affects multiple communities in more than one province.

At the federal level, there’s the National Adaption Strategy, aimed at helping build more climate-resilient communities, and the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan.

“A lot of what we’ve seen so far is the plan for the plan, but the idea is that now they’re going to start figuring out the details and start implementing, so hopefully that starts to happen as fast as it needs to,” said Power.

“But, just because that stuff is happening at the federal level, doesn’t mean provinces and towns and other decision-makers are off the hook. There is still a lot that needs to happen across all the levels.”

Read more

One thing anyone can do is check out an online tool Power and others at Fundamental Inc. use to help their clients understand the importance of the affect climate change can have on their community.

The interactive global map helps people understand how sea-level rise can potentially impact their specific community by being able to compute different parameters such as the year, sea level and temperature rise.

“It’s quite hard for most people to conceptualize the number when you say we’re expecting one metre of sea rise,” said Power.

“Most people can’t quite tell what piece of property or infrastructure will be OK. This map … makes it that much more understandable and accessible.”

Not just the rise

Will Balser is the coastal adaption coordinator with the Ecology Action Centre in Halifax.

One of his big concerns about the ocean is that the waters are getting warmer, which makes Atlantic Canada more susceptible to storm systems, particularly hurricanes, that can maintain strength as they move north.

Add sea-level rise to that equation, noted Balser, and Atlantic Canada can expect the damages caused by more highly energized storms to worsen.

He’s particularly worried about areas prone to erosion, adding there are lots of places throughout Atlantic Canada with sandy compositions, or that are at or below sea level, which will see worse impacts than others.

Historical data, he explained, has shown that erosion along the sandy Northumberland shore of Nova Scotia and the shores of Prince Edward Island have had an annual erosion rate of more than one foot. While that means one might expect to see around 80 feet or more lost during the average lifetime of a person, some beaches in these areas saw 20 or 30 feet lost during post-tropical storm Fiona alone.

“That’s decades of gradual erosion lost literally overnight,” said Balser.

Low-lying areas of Nova Scotia, such as the Tantramar Marsh and Annapolis Royal, are also susceptible according to Balser.

“There’s a lot of critical infrastructure there at or below sea level protected by dykes that were planned and built 400 years ago,” he said of the marshes near the New Brunswick border. “Obviously, they’re still maintained, but they are not going to keep up with the pace of sea level rise.”

Hurricane alley

The reality of living in the direct path of hurricanes and tropical storm systems, he added, gives rise to the question of the sustainability of living and working so close to the powerful ocean.

“There is no way to make permanent anything in contact with the ocean,” said Balser. “It’s a changing, evolving landscape, eternally.”

The Nova Scotia government recently established the Coastal Protection Act, which regulates new developments in coastal areas of the province. While that’s a great start, Balser said it only addresses new developments, not the existing infrastructure in coastal communities and the hundreds of thousands of Nova Scotians who live in them.

Like Power, Balser believes there needs to be more discussion of a managed retreat from some coastal areas and a plan developed to move people from anywhere identified as being an unsustainable coastal community.

He knows that’s an immense undertaking, not to mention a sensitive subject for some, and would require federal assistance to boot.

“We’re already in a housing crisis, so pulling people out of their homes and telling them they can’t go back to that community can just exacerbate the housing crisis,” said Balser.

“Also, there’s this whole issue of the trauma of seeing your physical and emotional community moved and destroyed by a hurricane or by the preemptive act of getting out of harm’s way.”

When it comes to dealing with the climate crisis, Balser firmly believes it is always better to be preventative than reactionary.

“If we can plan out a managed retreat of a community, we’re going to fare a lot better than if we have to hit the panic button and literally rescue people form their houses,” he said.